Coronavirus (COVID-19) Affects the Ballet World

[pherank]

10 minutes ago, Helene said:

One of the plans this time is to manufacture in parallel with testing, and if it works, fine, and if not, the vaccines won't be used.

We hope. Given the amount of panic decisions being made by certain leaders, let the buyer beware.

[Kathleen O'Connell]

1 hour ago, Buddy said:

Then here he does say this, Kathleen.

“Asked if he thinks developing hundreds of millions of doses of a vaccine is doable by January, Fauci said, "Yeah, I do, Savannah.””

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/04/30/fauci-warns-reopening-states-you-cant-just-leap-over-things/24154216/

Hmmm ... Well, I'm not going to challenge Dr Fauci, but producing 100s of millions of vaccine doses by January will be quite a feat. 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Kathleen O'Connell

[Buddy]

3 minutes ago, Kathleen O'Connell said:

Hmmm ... Well, I'm not going to challenge Dr Fauci, but producing 100s of millions of vaccine doses by January will be quite a feat. 

I don't have any quotes in front of me for the moment, Kathleen, but apparently the production project has been in the works for awhile. It now has Fauci's approval to go ahead based on the recent test results.

[pherank]

5 minutes ago, Kathleen O'Connell said:

Hmmm ... Well, I'm not going to challenge Dr Fauci, but producing 100s of millions of vaccine doses by January will be quite a feat. 

And imagine how well that is going to be "rolled out" in the U.S.  ;)
And, those people who walk around refusing to wear masks or observe any quarantine regulations are the same people who will likely refuse a vaccine.

[Buddy]

1 hour ago, Kathleen O'Connell said:

Hmmm ... Well, I'm not going to challenge Dr Fauci, but producing 100s of millions of vaccine doses by January will be quite a feat. 

Kathleen, here is something suggesting that a lesser amount of the drug might be adequate.

"Gilead Sciences announced Wednesday that it had conducted a separate trial showing that a five-day treatment of remdesivir was as effective as a 10-day course of the medication, a finding that will boost supply of the drug. Currently, however, the company says it has only 50,000 treatment courses, STAT reported, and will seek to produce millions more by the end of the year. That may not be enough to avert a shortage if the NIAID trials confirm that remdesivir is an effective treatment for COVID-19."

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/04/30/study-shows-remdesivir-has-promise-as-coronavirus-treatment/24156950/

 

[pherank]

If you're wanting everything to be back to normal by the Fall, don't listen to Anderson Cooper's Covid-19 discussion with Dr Sanjay Gupta and Bill Gates*. There's lots of information about vaccine development around the world, and lot's of particulars about testing.
[Bill Gates segment begins at 3:50]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axUtLAF8z9Q

* For those that don't know, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is very involved in basic healthcare and nutrition issues, as well as infectious disease control.

[Kathleen O'Connell]

7 hours ago, Buddy said:

Kathleen, here is something suggesting that a lesser amount of the drug might be adequate.

"Gilead Sciences announced Wednesday that it had conducted a separate trial showing that a five-day treatment of remdesivir was as effective as a 10-day course of the medication, a finding that will boost supply of the drug. Currently, however, the company says it has only 50,000 treatment courses, STAT reported, and will seek to produce millions more by the end of the year. That may not be enough to avert a shortage if the NIAID trials confirm that remdesivir is an effective treatment for COVID-19."

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/04/30/study-shows-remdesivir-has-promise-as-coronavirus-treatment/24156950/

 

I'm less concerned about the ability to ramp up anti-viral production than vaccine production. Unless the plan is to give everyone remdesivir prophylactically, we'll need  many, many more doses of the vaccine than the anti-viral. The latter is a treatment for those already ill; the former will need to be administered to as many well people as possible.

Edited May 1, 2020 by Kathleen O'Connell

[Kathleen O'Connell]

This Ars Technica article is an excellent precis on vaccine discovery, testing, and production. Highly recommended.

[pherank]

1 hour ago, Kathleen O'Connell said:

This Ars Technica article is an excellent precis on vaccine discovery, testing, and production. Highly recommended.

Yes, a good summary, and relatively easy reading. Thanks!

[Kathleen O'Connell]

7 hours ago, pherank said:

If you're wanting everything to be back to normal by the Fall, don't listen to Anderson Cooper's Covid-19 discussion with Dr Sanjay Gupta and Bill Gates*. There's lots of information about vaccine development around the world, and lot's of particulars about testing.
[Bill Gates segment begins at 3:50]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axUtLAF8z9Q

* For those that don't know, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is very involved in basic healthcare and nutrition issues, as well as infectious disease control.

I'm planning for the worst and hoping for the best. 

[Helene]

I just got a survey from a marketing firm PNB hired (via PNB) to poll the audience about what would make them comfortable about returning to the theater.

What's difficult in determining "when" would be how much I felt about the state and local government allowing large(r) social gatherings.  So far, I am guardedly optimistic, but I don't know how much pressure will come to bear to lift them prematurely, and the amount of time between effective treatment and/or vaccines and lifting the prohibitions. 

 

[nanushka]

1 minute ago, Helene said:

I just got a survey from a marketing firm PNB hired (via PNB) to poll the audience about what would make them comfortable about returning to the theater.

Helene, do they offer specific options to check off for that question, or is an open-response question? I'm just curious what specific things they are thinking would be feasible to offer. I can imagine some possibilities but also some reasons why each might not seem feasible. Just curious how broadly they're thinking at this point.

[Helene]

All questions were options, either radio buttons (one choice only) or checkboxes (multiple choices.)  There were some "Other" options, but mostly about visiting the website and social media and for what reason(s).  

They did ask a "when" question which included things out of their control, but most of the rest were questions were about things they felt were within their control, like cleaning the theater, line-handling, social-distancing.  I don't remember the other ones: I started to get anxious about how it could possibly work and how long it would take to even let people in and out of the theater.

Which is why I'm more in the "videos until vaccine" camp. At least until after the third spike.  When you think of the audiences, while there are a lot more younger people, most of us are in the vulnerable population when taken as a group.

[nanushka]

4 minutes ago, Helene said:

Which is why I'm more in the "videos until vaccine" camp. At least until after the third spike.  When you think of the audiences, while there are a lot more younger people, most of us are in the vulnerable population when taken as a group.

I have to say I'm with you there, even as one in a not particularly vulnerable population.

I'm curious whether theaters will consider seemingly more extreme options — e.g. mandatory temperature checks (which of course only find symptomatic potential cases), mandatory mask use, empty rows and empty seats between each party, etc. The latter especially would seem potentially far too detrimental in terms of ticket sales, but I'm curious what they'd be willing to do to make live performances draw people in.

[Drew]

Mr. Drew falls into more than one category that might be especially vulnerable to complications from Covid-19 and I fall into at least one, and we live in a state where the Governor seems to be indifferent to human life —at least in comparison to his concern for the state budget. (And that’s not the worse thing I could say about him in this crisis.)  You can bet I don’t anticipate attending any ballet performances until there is a vaccine that has proven itself to the medical community.  

[mussel]

I don't know whether it's considered as public information. I just received a voice mail from Joyce Theater that all performances are canceled thru the end of June. I didn't bother to check the website to verify, if it's not considered as public info, please remove.

Also there will be a weekly streaming on Friday.

[abatt]

The Joyce is the presenter of Pacific Northwest Ballet at the Koch.  It's probably only a matter of time before they  announce that cancellation.

[pherank]

Not specifically about ballet, but I thought this photo essay (in the time of Covid-19) was quite interesting:

The New Saturday Night
33 photographers show us the world on the weekend.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/01/arts/saturday-night-coronavirus.html

[volcanohunter]

Sir Cameron Mackintosh: 'Theatres could be closed until next year'

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-52525380

"Sir Cameron told Michael Ball it looked as if the West End and Broadway 'are going to be the last to go back'.

'For major producers both sides of the Atlantic, the truth is until social distancing doesn't exist anymore, we can't even plan to reopen,' he said.

'We will be back, but we need time to get back. If we don't hear [about lockdowns lifting] in a few weeks, I think the truth is we won't be able to come back until early next year. I think that's quite clear'. 

Edited May 4, 2020 by volcanohunter
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[California]

Opera, not ballet, but the Central City Opera Festival just announced that the entire 2020 program will be postponed to 2021. It strikes me that this is smart in terms of rehearsal time, ticket sales, etc. 

https://centralcityopera.org/

If you plan to attend Vail Dance in the future, you might consider a day or two in Central City. I'm not an opera buff, but I go with family members who are, and we always enjoy the caliber of this festival in a charming historic, beautifully restored opera house from the 19th century. (Those old miners loved their operas!)

[YouOverThere]

The Kennedy Center has extended its closure until August. We're going to have to hope Avigan/faviparivir works, or things could get really bad.

Edited May 4, 2020 by YouOverThere

[YouOverThere]

The Hong Kong Ballet's visit to the Wolf Trap in June has been cancelled (Septime Webre's Alice in Wonderland), as has the annual visit by Riverdance.

Edited May 4, 2020 by YouOverThere

[dirac]

On 4/30/2020 at 8:40 PM, Kathleen O'Connell said:

Hmmm ... Well, I'm not going to challenge Dr Fauci, but producing 100s of millions of vaccine doses by January will be quite a feat. 

I am also reluctant to question the good doctor, but that does seem distinctly unlikely. There may not be a vaccine for several years, maybe more. In fact, there may never be a vaccine.

Quote

 we live in a state where the Governor seems to be indifferent to human life —at least in comparison to his concern for the state budget.

There has also been a noticeable rise in ageism, which is being openly expressed, not least by some government officials. 

[pherank]

28 minutes ago, dirac said:

I am also reluctant to question the good doctor, but that does seem distinctly unlikely. There may not be a vaccine for several years, maybe more. In fact, there may never be a vaccine.

Fauci is under a great deal of pressure to present a positive viewpoint and not spend so much time on all the 'complicated' difficulties and steps required.

It's not impossible. But creating a successful vaccine in under a year and half, and mass inoculating (preferably) the entire human population just hasn't been done before.

 

[Kathleen O'Connell]

20 minutes ago, Leah said:

There are several vaccines in the works—from Israel, J&J, Oxford, to name a few. The reason it is taking so long to produce one for mass consumption is the amount of regulations and protocols that are put into place to ensure safety, not the difficulty of creating one. Vaccine science is not new, and the Coronavirus has been extensively studied and mapped. It’s just that there are steps that can only be rushed so much in between the research and release to market. If Fauci thinks that we can go through all of those steps by January then I believe him.

Even if a safe and effective vaccine makes it through discovery and testing in relatively short order, actually manufacturing billions of doses will be a real challenge—especially if the world needs all the other kinds of vaccines that are administered on a routine basis as well.

There are enough bottlenecks in the manufacturing process to throw up some real hurdles to worldwide production, distribution, and administration.