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We often have a lively Oscar broadcast discussion around this time of year, so I thought I’d start a pre-emptive awards season thread for comments on the Academy Awards or any of the other shows. The process tends to be more of a political election/popularity contest, as opposed to a reward for actual artistic merit. On the other hand, it’s fun to talk about. Put in your two cents, please. The nominations themselves will be announced on January 31.

A helpful schedule of upcoming awards below:

http://www.shns.com/shns/g_index2.cfm?acti...N-FILM-01-24-06

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As usual, I'll start :)

The two fields this year that I think are ridiculously crowded are Best Picture and Best Actor.

I'll start with Best Actor:

The three solid nominees I think will be Heath Ledger, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and David Straitharn. The other two slots will depend on a variety of factors. Will Jake Gyllenhaal campaign for Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor? Will George Clooney (Syriana) campaign for Best Actor or Best Supporting? Supposing neither of them campaigns for Best Actor, then I think the two final slots go to Joaquin Phoenix and maybe Eric Bana. Bana's nomination I think will depend largely on how the Academy treats Munich. So far Munich has been shut out of the awards. Another possibility is Jeff Daniels for The Squid and the Whale.

As to who will win, I think Hoffman gave the type of performance the Academy loves to honor. But Ledger (IMO) deserves it more, and the momentum of Brokeback might be good for Ledger's chances. But this year I wish they could give out two statuettes, or even three, because there were some incredible performances by actors this year.

Best Actress:

Really weak field. Felicity Huffman and Reese Witherspoon are my top picks, and Witherspoon will probably win. The performance I think *deserves* to win is Zhang Ziyi's heartbreaking turn in "2046" but I don't think she'll get nominated for that. Kiera Knightley will probably get a nod. Judi Dench will probably get nominated too just for being Judi Dench. Laura Linney might get a nod for The Squid and the Whale and I'd love to see this always-excellent actress rewarded. I don't have a problem with Witherspoon winning, but meh. A weak field, as usual.

Best Supporting Actor:

Again, REALLY crowded field. Jake Gyllenhaal and George Clooney could put themselves in for the Best Supporting race, but Frank Langella and Ray Wise of Good Night and Good Luck were outstanding. Clifton Collins of Capote was outstanding too. As was Matt Dillon in Crash. Anyone of them could win and I'd be happy with the outcome.

Best Supporting Actress:

This one is very strong, compared to Best Actress. I think Brenda Blethlyn might get a nom for Pride and Prejudice, Thandie Newton for Crash, Catherine Keener for Capote, Michelle Williams and Anne Hathaway for Brokeback. Gong Li might snag one for Memoirs of a Geisha. But the one performance that I really liked that probably won't get a nomination is Rosamund Pike (Jane) of Pride and Prejudice. She took this dullest of characters and made her enchanting.

Best Picture:

Brokeback Mountain, Capote, and Good Night and Good Luck I think are sure bets. Munich, Match Point, Walk the Line, The Squid and the Whale are all possibilities. In the end it doesn't matter -- I think Brokeback is a sure bet.

Best Director:

Ang Lee of course for Brokeback, George Clooney for Good Night and Good Luck, Bennet Miller for Capote, Woody Allen, Steven Spielberg ... Only Clooney and Lee would be serious contenders and Lee will probably get the statuette.

So overall, I think it'll be a good Oscar this year. Lots of quality, award-worthy films. We won't have to suffer through a Gladiator or Braveheart sweep :)

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But the one performance that I really liked that probably won't get a nomination is Rosamund Pike (Jane) of Pride and Prejudice. She took this dullest of characters and made her enchanting.

One of my nominees in the good-but -unlikely-for-a-nomination category is Gena Rowlands, giving Kate Hudson the heebie-jeebies in The Skeleton Key. This was one of those late summer entries that’s not going to snag awards for anyone involved, but Rowlands walked a fine line successfully between showing us some hambone and creating a character that was genuinely difficult to suss out. (Rowlands has never won, either, and also she could eat that little tweetybird Michelle Williams for breakfast.)

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I saw "Memories of a Geisha" (the Steven Spielberg film) and see it as a firm candidate. Then I read about William Golden's book having been opposed by the Geisha who inspired it, but I do not if this might influence the judges or not......

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I've said this before, but I also have a soft spot for Johnny Depp in Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. A kooky performance for sure, but it worked.

I also think the always fabulous Toni Collette was terrific in "In Her Shoes." But the movie was (rightly or wrongly) viewed as a chick flick, and Collette doesn't have the pull that Zellwegger did to get nominated for a chick flick, as Zellwegger did for Bridget Jones' Diary.

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Ok Oscar noms came out today.

Best Picture: Brokeback, Goodnight and Goodluck, Crash, Capote, Munich.

Crash won the SAG, but I really believe Brokeback will take home the honors.

Best Director: Clooney, Haggis (Crash), Lee, Miller (Capote), Spielberg

I think (and hope) that Lee will take home the honors, although I wouldn't be upset if Clooney went home with a statuette either.

Best Actor: Hoffman, Terrence Howard (Hustle and Flow), Ledger, Straitharn, Phoenix

I think only Hoffman, Ledger and Straitharn are serious nominees. I hope Ledger wins, but I think Hoffman will win.

Best Actress: Witherspoon, Huffman, Knightley, Theron, Dench. I think Witherspoon and Huffman are the serious contenders. Reese will probably win.

Best Supporting Actor: Gyllenhaal, Clooney, Dillon (Crash), Giamatti (Cinderella Man), Hurt (History of Violence). Ooh boy, a tough one. I think Gyllenhaal deserves it though.

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams (Junebug), Catherine Keener (Capote), Frances McDormand (North Country), Rachel Weitz (Constant Gardener), Michelle Williams (Brokeback). Don't really have a strong opinion on this one.

Best Screenplay (Adapted): Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Constant Gardener, History of Violence, Munich. I hope Brokeback wins.

Best Screenplay (Original): Crash, Goodnight and Goodluck, Match Point, Squid and the Whale, Syriana. I hope Goodnight and Goodluck takes this one home.

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I like George Clooney just fine, but to put him up there with Ang Lee and Steven Spielberg is pretty ridiculous (although not nearly as bad as Martin Scorsese losing to Kevin Costner).

Munich is the most interesting of the nominated pictures but it’s unlikely to win. Brokeback Mountain would be my second choice. I extend my sympathy to the people who are now going to rent Crash.

I don't think that Best Supporting Actor is going to be a nail biter. The Academy owes Giamatti and I think they know it.

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The Academy sure does love me - I think the only three movies I saw in a cinema this year were Crash, Munich and Brokeback Mountain. :)

I'm still working out my thoughts about BM, but it isn't my favorite Ang Lee movie (The Ice Storm is probably my favorite of his more recent movies).

Munich OTOH exceeded my expectations and I would like to see it win.

I thought Crash was derivative - reminded me too much of Magnolia, Grand Canyon and a half dozen Robert Altman movies.

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Thanks for chiming in, GWTW. Munich is by no means perfect but I admired it, too. Eric Bana’s not getting the credit he should but I thought he was excellent – also Ciaran Hinds as Carl and Mathieu Amalric as Louis (the fellow with the dog).

Also, it was the only movie of the season to offer filmgoers the chance to see Ehud Barak in a dress. :)

When you work out your thoughts on Brokeback, let us in on them, please.

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At this point I'm really worried about Brokeback. I'm afraid Hollywood will "chicken out" and give it to something like "Crash" which is just socially conscious enough to make the Academy voters feel good about themselves. And I'm afraid Ang Lee doesn't have the power in Hollywood to really run a vigorous campaign, the way Clint Eastwood was able to do last year with Million Dollar Baby.

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Best Screenplay (Original): Crash, Goodnight and Goodluck, Match Point, Squid and the Whale, Syriana. I hope Goodnight and Goodluck takes this one home.

My own choice among these would by The Squid and the Whale or possibly Syriana. I was sorry, incidentally, that Jeff Daniels was completely overlooked. Next time, he should try playing a pimp.

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If “Crash” actually beats “Brokeback Mountain” I will never stop laughing.

dirac, I have a sinking feeling it will. Roger Ebert for one has been loudly championing Crash and predicts a Crash upset. I hope the Academy "does the right thing" and "quits" Crash, because Brokeback is in every way a superior film. The only award I'd give Crash would be Best Supporting Actor for Matt Dillon ...

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In a spirit of fair play, I rented Crash on DVD, and although the small screen serves it better its flaws were still as evident as before. Brokeback isn’t perfect, either, but the difference in quality between the two is not even worth debating, for this viewer anyway.

Ebert's defense of "Crash is here,

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Well, it’s Oscar weekend. If “Crash” actually beats “Brokeback Mountain” I will never stop laughing.

Lol. I'll be happy if any of the other four movies wins over "Crash," though I'm rooting for "Brokeback." Ebert's comparison of "Crash" to Dickens strikes me as fundamentally false. Dickens drraws you in with rich, vivid characters and superb storytelling, the long-lined plots intertwining as in a good mystery or thriller. "Crash" is a straight-ahead propaganda parade, and the actors might as well have worn sandwich boards announcing what they stand for. It gives up all its got on one viewing.

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Well, it’s Oscar weekend. If “Crash” actually beats “Brokeback Mountain” I will never stop laughing.
:clapping: Have you stopped laughing?

I saw few of this year's films, but I'm not a big moviegoer, so that wasn't a reason why I found the broadcast very, very dull. I missed Billy Crystal. Desperately. Exception of Lauren Bacall's presentation, and Lily Tomlin and Meryl Streep's introduction of Robert Altman, it was pretty much a downhill roll after George Clooney's acceptance speech. :yawn: And I didn't find the fashion aspect as interesting as it has been in earlier years. Loved the style and fabric of J.Lo's dress, but I thought it was a bad color, especially for her.

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Dreadful set -- suffering from gigantism and grandiosity, with the look of the interior of an inflated art-deco chromium juke-box as filmed by the most noir-ish of film noir directors. Everyone was dwarfed -- poor Dolly Parton was made to look frail and marionette-like in those surroundings, and even gorgeous, voluptuous Salma Hayek became inconsequential walking from and to the shadows towards the back. The choice of dominant silver-grey tones was a denial of one of the main characteristics of cinema for half a century: color.

Most of the women looked great; most of the men, strangely small and insignificant.

Jon Stewart is brilliantly funny on his own show -- small set, small screen. But his humor depends on a characterization that is intense, uptight and self-conscious, tending to paranoid, always thinking too much, very twisty-turny and insecure -- like a darker version of Woody Allen. He does not do the segueway to "benign" and "warm" the way Crystal, Martin and Goldberg can. He knew he was foundering very early on, and that did not help.

I lasted only as far as the the penguin documentary group. The highllight for me: the clip from Wallace and Gromet and the nice little schtick by the two guys who accepted that award. Truly a case where "men of clay" are superior to the real thing.

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Well, white folks were hugging their Hispanic servants all over Brentwood last night. There have been frequent occasions when I’ve disagreed with the Best Picture choices, but this year I think the Academy actually chose the worst of the nominated films (which were all, except for the winner, very respectable choices). It’s a shame, though, because Brokeback Mountain, although not perfect, would have been a genuinely distinguished choice, a departure from recent Academy custom. In other words, they blew it.

And I didn't find the fashion aspect as interesting as it has been in earlier years. Loved the style and fabric of J.Lo's dress, but I thought it was a bad color, especially for her.

True. There’s been a lot of commentary on the fact that Oscar gowns have been very “conservative,” e.g., “boring” in recent years, in large part because the women stars are fearful – justifiably, IMO – of being laughed at for wearing anything daring. Although I miss the flamboyant bad taste of the heyday of Bob Mackie and Nolan Miller, I also think that the rise of the simple sheath is progress of a kind – women’s evening wear is becoming more of a uniform style, with minor variations, as it’s been for men all along. Speaking of the men, I could have done without Larry McMurtry’s blue jeans, although I did appreciate that he worked in a plug for booksellers, and Morgan Freeman appeared to have wrapped his tie around his neck.

J.Lo. was the only person who looked really awful – it was not only the color of the dress, as carbro notes, but what on earth was going on with her makeup?????

It was pretty much a downhill roll after George Clooney's acceptance speech.

That man never puts a foot wrong. He was smart and gracious for the red carpet interviews, and I understand he’s really cool about things like signing autographs, too. I’m beginning to hate him. I thought he was awarded in the wrong category for a couple of reasons. A) although he has charm and charisma to burn, he really isn’t the world’s greatest actor, not that it matters, and B) the Best Supporting category should be primarily for supporting actors, not stars who are graciously taking second leads or who’ve been put in the category so they don’t compete with another star in the same picture.

I missed Billy Crystal. Desperately.

I used to like him until after that odd episode when he singled out Bill Murray in the audience after Murray lost to Sean Penn a couple of years ago. It was obvious that he was so jealous of Murray that he could hardly speak.

I missed Catherine Zeta-Jones and her I Am a Movie Star, Isn’t It Wonderful aura.

Dreadful set -- suffering from gigantism and grandiosity, with the look of the interior of an inflated art-deco chromium juke-box as filmed by the most noir-ish of film noir directors.

It was hideous, wasn’t it? However, the Bad Taste high – or low – point of the evening for me was the “In the Deep” production number, which was some kind of interpretive dance involving car crashes. It looked like “Night of the Living Dead.”

Unspoken thought from Steven Spielberg: “Well, at least I didn’t lose Best Director to Paul Haggis.”

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I think J. Lo must have overdone the spray-on tan. At least I hope that was fake -- if not, her dermatologist needs to warn her about excessive sun exposure! :clapping:

The actress who looked best last night IMHO was Ziyi Zhang's -- her dress really suited her petite delicacy.

The Oscars strike me as increasingly irrelevant. There's so much advance hype and handicapping that by the time the Academy members get to vote, it seems like what they're reacting to is the buzz rather than the actual movies. Very meta, ie, the Oscars have become about the Oscars. I agree with the analysts who have said that Brokeback peaked too soon -- I didn't see many movies this year, but that one haunts me to this day -- and by the time voting came around, everyone had moved on in search of the next thing...

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