YouOverThere

I haven't wanted to be the bearer of negativity, but I came to the conclusion 7-8 weeks ago that unless some existing drugs turn out to be effective against the SARS-CoV-2 virus there won't be a 2020-21 season at all for many performing arts groups. I agree with Helene that it will take months to manufacture, distribute, and administer the hundreds of millions of doses needed once a vaccine is developed. And 50 percent effectiveness doesn't seem like enough to allow several thousand people to be packed together for several hours. Given that quite a few organizations have cancelled performances 6-7 months in advance, I wonder whether they will be able to wait much past Labor Day before deciding on the 2021 part of their seasons. I would think that opera companies are in the most difficult position, since generally the lead roles are played by guest artists who are contracted well in advance. Symphony and chamber orchestras can probably re-start with a few weeks notice, possibly having to change programs because of cancelling contracts with guest soloists.

This isn't exactly ballet, but maybe it fits here...

Any idea how long before a production a company has to make financial commitments? I've been incredibly over-optimistic about this situation right from the beginning (to the point of leaving stuff in my office thinking that I would only be telecommuting for a few weeks), so I can't stop thinking that something might turn up that will get this virus under control.

It is not IMPOSSIBLE that a vaccine will be available by Fall, which would allow performances to start up in January, so it's understandable that no one wants to cancel the entire season right now.

The Kennedy Center has cancelled almost all performances for the remainder of 2020. The only ballet performance currently listed for the entire 2020-21 season is the Washington Ballet's Swan Lake in May of 2021.

Germany had a test developed and laboratories trained to process the results by the middle of February.

Oops, I misread the announcement. These apparently will be new performances (the Ballet Folklorico de Mexico de Amalia Hernandez is the only dance company).

Washington Performing Arts has created a series of PPV online performances (tapes of concerts they've presented in the recent past). For 2021. It appears that they aren't convinced that a 2020-21 season will take place.

If they start allowing people who test positive for antibodies to do things that the rest can't, there's a huge risk of a lot of coronavirus parties (as well as a large market in fraudulent certifications) since people lacking (proof of) antibodies will perceive themselves to be at a social and/or economic disadvantage. That could be disastrous.

I wonder what they are expecting will happen in December that will allow them to open.

The Toronto-based chamber orchestra Tafelmusik is creating a pay per view online concert series, with the first performance this evening (5/27). The wave of the future?

I tried buying tickets for a few shows in June and was not able to, so apparently June shows are cancelled even if there isn't a banner on their website. For shows involving the Pacific Symphony, the ticket page does state that the Pacific Symphony has cancelled all their June shows.

According to a New York Times article, the Mark Morris Dance Group and the (Benjamin Millepied's) L.A. Dance Project have both stated that they are not planning any performances for the remainder of 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/24/arts/reopening-dance-music-theater-virus.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&fbclid=IwAR3VbQ21r_NKmpOZw6ZwSYADd2FA

The Wolf Trap has officially cancelled their entire summer season. This means that in addition to the previously announced visits by the Hong Kong Ballet (Alice in Wonderland) and Riverdance, the Richmond Ballet's production of Carmina Burana has also been cancelled. Other noteworthy cancellations include a production of Eugene Onegin and a multi-media performance of The Planets with the National Symphony Orchestra.

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The Wolf Trap has cancelled all their performances in June, so it's not a given that it is easier to socially distance outdoor audiences.

It appeared to me that of all the donation links in the Relief Funds thread except 1 are donations to companies rather than dancers. Is this true? And the only one that appeared to be a relief fund for dancers (the one for ABT dancers) is one that I haven't seen enough information about to be comfortable in donating money, UNLESS someone else knows that it's legitimate. I know that I am ALWAYS a huge pessimist, but right now I'm not wanting to give the money that I have available for donations to ballet companies because I'm too concerned that they will go out of business anyway.

The Hong Kong Ballet's visit to the Wolf Trap in June has been cancelled (Septime Webre's Alice in Wonderland), as has the annual visit by Riverdance.

The Kennedy Center has extended its closure until August. We're going to have to hope Avigan/faviparivir works, or things could get really bad.

Today's (April 25) Washington Post had an article on the uncertain future of Russian ballet companies. But at least it contained a cute video organized by Ivan Vasiliev. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/25/bolshoi-kitchen-russian-ballet-is-also-working-home-during-lockdown/?arc404=true

Wow! If this is true, running should probably be prohibited, and maybe taking walks as well. But I'm skeptical that the density of droplets and aerosols would be large enough that a person more than a few feet away would inhale enough virus particles to get infected. At least I hope so; with the gym closed I've taken up running because I want my heart and lungs to be at as high a capacity as possible in case I get infected.

Taking temperatures or checking throats might not be sufficient. People with COVID-19 are contagious before they notice symptoms, and it isn't clear that any sort of exam would detect the infection before contagiousness sets in. I believe that there now are same day tests available in some other countries and it would only be necessary to test the dancers every 3 days, but that would still be a large expense and it might be forbidden for a non-essential organization to tie up testing resources.

They might be able to pay the mortgage and keep a skeleton staff in place, but can they pay the dancers? Most likely not, and many of them might move on to their next careers.

Maybe. But with all the free music videos available, some of which are by elite orchestras, there also might be limited interest in paying to watch a stream of the local orchestra.

"Herd immunity" doesn't require a vaccine, however it does require a significant portion of the population to have developed anti-bodies. I've seen the figure of 60 percent thrown around. In the absence of a vaccine, that means having been infected to the extent that the immune system mobilizes against the disease. In the US, 60 percent would mean close to 200 million people, and even if the fatality rate is at the low end of the estimates that I've seen - 0.4 percent claimed in a study of one of the most affected districts in Germany - that would mean close to 800,000 deaths.